Millett Granger Morgan,
Millett Granger (Carnegie Mellon University, Pennsylvania) Morgan,
Max Henrion,
Max (Carnegie Mellon University, Pennsylvania) Henrion
e.a.
Uncertainty
A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis
Gebonden Engels 1990 9780521365420
Verwachte levertijd ongeveer 9 werkdagen
Samenvatting
The authors explain the ways in which uncertainty is an important factor in the problems of risk and policy analysis. This book outlines the source and nature of uncertainty, discusses techniques for obtaining and using expert judgment, and reviews a variety of simple and advanced methods for analyzing uncertainty.
Specificaties
ISBN13:9780521365420
Taal:Engels
Bindwijze:Gebonden
Aantal pagina's:348
Uitgever:Cambridge University Press
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Inhoudsopgave
Preface; 1. Introduction; 2. Recent milestones; 3. An overview of quantitative policy analysis; 4. The nature and sources of uncertainty; 5. Probability distributions and statistical estimation; 6. Human judgement about and with uncertainty; 7. Performing probability assessment; 8. The propagation and analysis of uncertainty; 9. The graphic communication of uncertainty; 10. Analytica: a software tool for uncertainty analysis; 11. Large and complex models; 12. The value of knowing how little you know; Index.
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